Covariance
Covariance
A statistical measure of how two securities move together, indicating the direction of their relationship but not its strength. Positive covariance means securities tend to move in the same direction, negative covariance means they move in opposite directions, and zero covariance indicates no linear relationship. Used in Modern Portfolio Theory for portfolio construction and diversification analysis, though correlation is preferred for interpretation because covariance magnitude depends on the securities being measured.
If Stock A and Stock B have positive covariance, when Stock A rises 5%, Stock B tends to rise as well (though not necessarily by 5%). If they have negative covariance, when Stock A rises, Stock B tends to fall. Treasury bonds and stocks often have negative covariance: during market downturns, investors flee to bonds (which rise) while stocks fall, making them effective diversification partners.
Students often confuse covariance with correlation. Covariance shows direction (positive/negative) but its magnitude is difficult to interpret because it depends on the units and scale of the securities. Correlation standardizes covariance to a -1.0 to +1.0 scale, making it easier to interpret strength. Both measure the same relationship, but correlation is the standardized, interpretable version.
How This Is Tested
- Understanding that negative covariance between securities improves diversification effectiveness
- Distinguishing between covariance (direction only, hard to interpret magnitude) and correlation (direction and standardized strength)
- Recognizing that covariance is used in Modern Portfolio Theory for optimal portfolio construction
- Identifying how covariance affects portfolio variance and total risk
- Understanding that combining securities with negative covariance reduces portfolio volatility
Calculation Example
Cov(X,Y) = ฮฃ[(X - Xฬ)(Y - ศฒ)] / (n-1) - Positive covariance (e.g., +250): Securities move in the same direction
- Negative covariance (e.g., -150): Securities move in opposite directions
- Zero covariance (or near zero): Securities move independently
- Magnitude is difficult to interpret without context (depends on security units)
- Convert to correlation for standardized interpretation: correlation = covariance รท (SDโ ร SDโ)
Example Exam Questions
Test your understanding with these practice questions. Select an answer to see the explanation.
Thomas, age 38, is working with his investment adviser to build a diversified $400,000 portfolio for retirement. His adviser calculates that his current holdings (all domestic large-cap stocks) have high positive covariance with each other. Thomas wants to reduce portfolio volatility without sacrificing long-term growth potential. Which recommendation would best address his diversification objective?
B is correct. The current portfolio has high positive covariance, meaning the stocks move together and provide limited diversification benefits. Adding assets with LOW or NEGATIVE covariance (Treasury bonds often move opposite to stocks during market stress, international stocks respond to different economic factors, real estate has different return drivers) would significantly reduce portfolio volatility through effective diversification while maintaining growth potential.
A is incorrect because adding more domestic large-cap stocks with similar positive covariance does not improve diversification; they will continue to move together during market downturns. C is incorrect because increasing concentration increases risk and high positive covariance is the problem, not the solution. D is incorrect because negative covariance is highly desirable for diversification; when one asset falls, the negatively covariant asset tends to rise, stabilizing portfolio returns.
The Series 65 exam tests your ability to recognize when covariance analysis reveals inadequate diversification and recommend appropriate corrective actions. Understanding that high positive covariance defeats diversification (securities fall together) while negative covariance enhances it (securities offset each other) is critical for portfolio construction that actually reduces risk.
What does positive covariance between two securities indicate about their price movements?
C is correct. Positive covariance indicates that when one security rises, the other tends to rise as well, and when one falls, the other tends to fall. They move in the same direction, though not necessarily by the same magnitude.
A describes negative covariance, not positive covariance. B describes zero or near-zero covariance, indicating no linear relationship between the securities. D is incorrect because covariance (like correlation) measures association, not causation; positive covariance shows they move together but does not prove one causes the other to move (both might respond to common factors like economic conditions).
The Series 65 exam frequently tests basic understanding of covariance interpretation. Knowing that positive covariance means same-direction movement, negative means opposite-direction movement, and zero means no relationship is fundamental to understanding diversification effectiveness and portfolio construction principles.
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Asset W: Covariance of +400 with existing portfolio
Asset X: Covariance of +50 with existing portfolio
Asset Y: Covariance of -100 with existing portfolio
Asset Z: Covariance of 0 with existing portfolio
C is correct. Asset Y with negative covariance (-100) provides the greatest reduction in portfolio volatility. Negative covariance means when the existing portfolio declines, Asset Y tends to rise (or decline less), offsetting portfolio losses and reducing overall volatility. This inverse relationship maximizes the risk-reduction benefits of diversification.
A (covariance +400) provides minimal diversification because it moves strongly in the same direction as the portfolio, amplifying rather than offsetting volatility. B (covariance +50) provides some diversification since the positive covariance is relatively small, but negative covariance is superior. D (covariance 0) provides good diversification since the asset moves independently, but negative covariance actively offsets portfolio movements rather than just being independent.
The Series 65 exam tests your ability to apply covariance analysis to portfolio construction decisions. Understanding that negative covariance provides superior volatility reduction compared to positive or zero covariance is essential for selecting securities that genuinely reduce portfolio risk through diversification rather than just creating the appearance of diversity.
All of the following statements about covariance are accurate EXCEPT
B is correct (the EXCEPT answer). This statement is FALSE. Covariance is NOT standardized to a -1.0 to +1.0 scale. that describes CORRELATION, not covariance. Covariance can range from negative infinity to positive infinity, and its magnitude is difficult to interpret because it depends on the units and scale of the securities being measured. This is why correlation (standardized covariance) is preferred for interpretation.
A is accurate: positive covariance indicates same-direction movement between securities. C is accurate: negative covariance is highly desirable for diversification because securities move in opposite directions, offsetting each other and reducing portfolio volatility. D is accurate: covariance is a fundamental input in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), used in calculating portfolio variance and determining optimal portfolio weights along the efficient frontier.
The Series 65 exam tests whether you understand the critical distinction between covariance and correlation. This is a common source of confusion: covariance shows direction but its magnitude is hard to interpret, while correlation standardizes it to a -1.0 to +1.0 scale for easy interpretation. Investment advisers must know when to use each measure and how to explain them to clients.
An investment adviser is using covariance analysis to construct a diversified portfolio. Which of the following statements about covariance and portfolio construction are accurate?
1. Adding a security with negative covariance to a portfolio will reduce the portfolio's overall variance
2. Two securities with zero covariance provide better diversification than two securities with high positive covariance
3. Covariance magnitude is easier to interpret than correlation magnitude because it uses the original units
4. Stocks and Treasury bonds typically have negative covariance, making them effective diversification partners
B is correct. Statements 1, 2, and 4 are accurate.
Statement 1 is TRUE: Negative covariance reduces portfolio variance (total risk) because when one asset falls, the negatively covariant asset tends to rise, offsetting losses and stabilizing portfolio returns. This is the mathematical foundation of diversification benefits.
Statement 2 is TRUE: Zero covariance means securities move independently, providing good diversification. High positive covariance means securities move together, providing minimal diversification because they tend to fall together during downturns. Independent movement (zero covariance) is superior to coordinated movement (positive covariance) for risk reduction.
Statement 3 is FALSE: Covariance magnitude is HARDER to interpret than correlation magnitude, not easier. Covariance depends on the units and scale of the securities (a covariance of +200 between two volatile stocks is different from +200 between two bonds), making it difficult to assess strength. Correlation standardizes covariance to a -1.0 to +1.0 scale, making it interpretable across any securities.
Statement 4 is TRUE: Stocks and Treasury bonds historically have shown low or negative covariance. During market stress, investors often flee stocks and move to Treasury bonds for safety, causing stocks to fall while bonds rise (flight to quality). This inverse relationship makes them excellent diversification partners in multi-asset portfolios.
The Series 65 exam tests comprehensive understanding of how covariance affects portfolio risk and diversification across multiple scenarios. You must recognize how different covariance relationships impact portfolio variance, understand the interpretation challenges with covariance versus correlation, and know typical covariance relationships between major asset classes for effective portfolio construction.
๐ก Memory Aid
Think of covariance as "Co-Vary" = Vary Together: Positive = Partners dancing together (same direction, limited benefit), Negative = Partners on a seesaw (one up, one down, balances risk), Zero = Partners doing different things (independent, good variety). KEY: Covariance shows direction only; for strength, use correlation (the standardized version). Remember: Negative covariance = positive for diversification!
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