Coincident Indicator

B is correct. Industrial production, personal income, nonagricultural employment, and manufacturing & trade sales are the four Conference Board coincident indicators that move simultaneously with the economy and reflect current economic conditions. These are the best measures of what is happening in the economy right now.

A is incorrect because leading indicators (like building permits, stock prices, or manufacturing new orders) predict future conditions, not current ones. C is incorrect because lagging indicators (like unemployment rate duration or corporate profits) confirm trends after they have already occurred. D is incorrect because while consumer confidence is measured, the specific indicators mentioned (industrial production, income, employment, sales) are classified as coincident indicators, not sentiment measures.

B is correct. Coincident indicators move in real time with the economy, providing the most accurate measure of current economic conditions. They neither predict the future nor lag behind economic changes.

A describes leading indicators (like building permits or stock market indices), which predict future economic changes. C describes lagging indicators (like unemployment duration or corporate profits), which confirm trends after they have occurred. D is incorrect because coincident indicators measure broad economic activity across all sectors; the four Conference Board coincident indicators include industrial production, nonagricultural employment, personal income (minus transfers), and manufacturing & trade sales.

B is correct. Industrial production, nonagricultural employment, and personal income are all Conference Board coincident indicators that reflect current economic activity in real time. These provide the most accurate snapshot of what is happening in the economy right now, which is essential for assessing current conditions.

A is incorrect because leading indicators predict future conditions but may not accurately reflect current economic state; the economy could currently be strong while leading indicators suggest future weakness. C is incorrect because lagging indicators confirm past trends but don't show current conditions; they look backward, not at the present. D is incorrect because sentiment indicators measure expectations and opinions rather than actual economic activity; they can be useful but are less reliable than hard data on production, income, and employment.

B is correct (the EXCEPT answer). Building permits are a leading indicator, not a coincident indicator. Building permits predict future construction activity and economic conditions 3-6 months ahead, so they move BEFORE the economy changes.

A is accurate: Industrial production is one of the four Conference Board coincident indicators, reflecting current manufacturing activity in real time. C is accurate: Nonagricultural employment is a key Conference Board coincident indicator measuring current job levels across the economy. D is accurate: Manufacturing & trade sales is one of the four Conference Board coincident indicators, showing current commercial activity.

A is correct. Only statements 1 and 2 are accurate.

Statement 1 is TRUE: By definition, coincident indicators move simultaneously with the economy and reflect current conditions in real time, not future or past conditions.

Statement 2 is TRUE: The Conference Board tracks four primary coincident indicators—industrial production, nonagricultural employment, personal income (minus transfer payments), and manufacturing & trade sales. These are the official coincident indicators used to assess current economic activity.

Statement 3 is FALSE: Coincident indicators do NOT predict future turning points; they move WITH the economy in real time. Leading indicators (like building permits, stock prices, and manufacturing new orders) are the ones that predict economic changes 3-6 months in advance. This is a critical distinction tested on the Series 65.

Statement 4 is FALSE: GDP is NOT one of the Conference Board's four coincident indicators. This is a common misconception. While GDP is an important economic measure, the official Conference Board coincident indicators are industrial production, nonagricultural employment, personal income (minus transfers), and manufacturing & trade sales.